Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 33.052513 35.604151 38.372991 41.621826 45.357156 49.551820 54.668462
2025-06-01 28.941050 32.268797 36.103002 40.917915 46.908900 54.271616 64.267214
2025-06-08 26.228305 29.845125 34.165675 39.827841 47.250017 56.964923 71.256165
2025-06-15 25.198342 29.221382 34.194132 40.988193 50.377700 63.519836 84.694470
2025-06-22 23.860064 28.046573 33.350934 40.826224 51.586479 67.481747 95.166387
2025-06-29 22.548595 26.780320 32.245142 40.136757 51.876249 70.019273 103.868894
2025-07-06 21.263968 25.451112 30.936812 39.008383 51.329443 71.078561 110.130745
2025-07-13 20.923616 25.335326 31.241960 40.186010 54.403039 78.581050 131.413259
2025-07-20 20.486909 25.051302 31.276870 40.943172 56.876829 85.515701 154.695758
2025-07-27 20.034211 24.711070 31.196339 41.497196 59.059667 92.357501 181.614431
2025-08-03 19.412635 24.097851 30.674846 41.301519 59.895703 96.678582 204.415576
2025-08-10 18.702595 23.324265 29.870285 40.580982 59.689798 98.744744 221.695078
2025-08-17 17.990580 22.536954 29.032381 39.792157 59.362162 100.707466 241.324309
2025-08-24 17.354099 21.833790 28.287950 39.109091 59.170456 103.003572 264.986911
2025-08-31 16.684364 21.054779 27.388770 38.099464 58.229602 103.307196 280.886621
2025-09-07 16.565667 21.071285 27.703457 39.176115 61.552788 115.229778 372.544493
2025-09-14 16.170718 20.662238 27.332939 39.025912 62.340502 120.696596 441.432378
2025-09-21 15.692272 20.110877 26.712191 38.386161 62.012324 122.917746 494.120975
2025-09-28 15.152284 19.450181 25.891728 37.337987 60.693315 121.897561 518.426515
2025-10-05 15.101950 19.521957 26.239660 38.431881 64.235772 137.190173 790.557272
2025-10-12 14.970135 19.463391 26.371720 39.134373 67.007237 151.405456 1252.579203
2025-10-19 14.806439 19.348668 26.404166 39.647987 69.416528 165.696140 2224.069984
2025-10-26 14.519718 19.033542 26.089492 39.466622 70.089679 173.536740 3673.961337